The Science Behind Employment Data
Script:
Matt (Ai Voice Andrew): And we’re back. Before the break here on Navigating The Numbers we were talking to a panel of experts helping us to understand the science behind employment data. Let’s now go live to the floor of the NASDAQ stock exchange where we have Emily Chase, an analyst from the census bureau. Emily, welcome to the show.
Emily (Ai VoiceAva): Thanks Matt, happy to be here.
Matt: Emily, for those just tuning in, can you help us understand how the census bureau collects employment data and how you work with other federal agencies to determine the latest job numbers?
Emily: Well, as you can imagine, it’s a large process where we conduct population surveys, which measure things like household employment and of course unemployment. And we also work closely with the bureau of labor statistics, which collects data on businesses, we look at where job creation is happening, and also payroll data. We also collect a fair amount of information from individual state unemployment insurance programs, and our own independently verified surveys.
Matt: That seems like an enormous undertaking. What are the advantages and disadvantages of those kinds of approaches?
Emily: Sure, no one approach is perfect, which is why we do so many different types of data collection. Some allow us to capture specific demographic details but are too small a sample size, where others might have large sample sizes but exclude important information about groups of individuals. At the end of the say we look to consult many different sources and a diverse group of perspectives to really try to validate and verify what’s going on in the market.
Matt: That’s fascinating Emily, thanks so much for joining us this morning. We look forward to tomorrow’s report.
Matt: Now let’s go a bit deeper and explore how the data that gets collected gets analyzed. To help us with this let’s bring in Ethan Cole, contributing editor here at BAAS4000 to explain. Ethan, help us out here, what kinds of analysis do we do when we look at the latest job numbers?
Ethan (Ai Voice Dustin): Great question Matt, and the real answer is that there’s no one best method here. Like Emily said, we run a range of different types of analysis to build out what we think we’re seeing. We might use regression models, which can help pinpoint how rising wages correlate with declining unemployment rates and how it’s impacting national productivity. Seasonal adjustments are always important too, and trying to see longer-term trends by looking at leading and lagging indicators, and smoothing out the data so we can model what might happen over the next few years is something we do a lot of. Remember that the question on the market’s lips isn’t just what’s happening, but what’s going to happen next.
Matt: Great stuff as always Ethan, we’ll let you get back to crunching the numbers for us.
Matt: So let’s head backstage here in the BAAS4000 newsroom and show you how we bring these numbers to life for our viewers. Very often the employment data we get is incredibly complex, so we need to organize it into a presentable format we can talk through and explain. We use simple tables, graphs and charts to help visualize trends we’re interested in, especially when they’re able to bring to life patterns in the market and help us to understand what’s going on in each sector.
Matt: You’ll also often see us use heatmaps where we’ll break down the information across the country, something you’ve seen a lot over the past few years as artificial intelligence and data warehouses become more widespread. But at the end of the day we’re interested in the stories the numbers tells us, and how our understanding of what’s going on shapes how we might think about the future of the market.
Matt: To wrap up, how does it all come together? For this, let’s go back to Emily at the NASDAQ for more insights. Emily, you work with a lot of policy makers and decision makers. How do you see this type of information being used out there in the real world?
Emily: Thanks Matt, we see a lot of policy makers analyzing unemployment rates, labor force participation, and wage growth. But over the past few years we’ve also seen a rise in more political decision making, such as looking at regional job growth and underemployment rates in order to allocate the dollars for infrastructure projects, education initiatives, or enhanced unemployment benefits in areas with economic stagnation.
Matt: I feel we’ve seen this as a big topic of discussion during the recent presidential election.
Emily: Definitely. The work we do helps large and small businesses make career decisions, forecast demand, plan expansions and think with more smarts about their growth. It’s also something we share a lot with colleges in preparing future employees about to enter the workforce, and maintaining a healthy feedback loop so we are appropriately skilling for not just the jobs of today, but the jobs of the future.
Matt: Really incredible, thanks so much Emily. Join us tomorrow for our continued coverage of the latest jobs report, and don’t forget to like and subscribe for more podcasts like this.
Research:
Cox, J. (2024). There’s an important jobs report coming Friday. Here’s what to expect. CNBC.com. Retrieved from: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/05/theres-an-important-jobs-report-coming-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html.
Cox, J. (2025). U.S. payrolls grew by 256,000 in December, much more than expected; unemployment rate falls to 4.1%. CNBC.com. Retrieved from: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/10/jobs-report-december-2024.html.
Koba, M. (2014). How is monthly jobs report compiled? CNBC explains. CNBC.com. Retrieved from: https://www.cnbc.com/2014/04/04/how-is-monthly-jobs-report-compiled-cnbc-explains.html.
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey. Retrieved from: https://www.bls.gov/cps/
United States Census Bureau: Employment Data. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/topics/employment/data.html.
Census Bureau Releases New Occupations, Earnings and Job Characteristics Report. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/occupations-earnings-job-characteristics-report.html.
